Narendra Modi’s BJP expected to retain power but early India count suggests it won’t be the landslide he hoped for

Modi was still expected to be elected to a third five-year term in the world’s biggest democratic exercise – even as early counting on Tuesday showed his Hindu nationalist party may not secure a majority on its own, despite pre-election hopes of a landslide victory.

If the trend continues, it would be a stunning blow for the 73-year-old leader, who has never been in a position where he has had to rely on his coalition partners to govern.

Counting the more than 640 million votes cast over six weeks was supposed to take a full day, and early figures could change.

During his 10 years in power, Modi transformed India’s political landscape, bringing Hindu nationalism, once a fringe ideology in India, into the mainstream while leaving the country deeply divided.

His supporters see him as a strong, self-made leader who has improved India’s standing in the world. His critics and opponents say his Hindu-first policy has bred intolerance and while the economy, the world’s fifth largest and one of the fastest growing, has become more unequal.

About eight hours into the count, the first data reported by India’s Election Commission showed Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party leading in 231 constituencies and winning 13, including one uncontested, out of 543 parliamentary seats. The main opposition Congress party led in 93 constituencies and won four.

A total of 272 seats are required for a majority. In 2019, the BJP won 303 seats, compared to securing 282 in 2014, when Modi first came to power.

Modi’s party is part of the National Democratic Alliance, whose members were leading in 277 constituencies and won 15, according to early counting. The Congress party is part of the INDIA alliance, leading in 220 constituencies and winning five.

The Electoral Commission does not report data on the percentage of votes counted.

Markets fell sharply on the back of early results

Weekend exit polls projected the NDA to win more than 350 seats. Indian markets, which hit an all-time high on Monday, closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark stock indices – NIFTY 50 and BSE Sensex – both down more than 5 percent.

In the financial capital of Mumbai, Mangesh Mahadeshwar was one of many surprised by how the election was going.

“Yesterday we thought the BJP would get more than 400 seats,” said the 52-year-old, who was watching the results at the restaurant where he works.

“Today it looks like that won’t happen – people haven’t supported the BJP as much this time.”

If Modi wins, it will be only the second time an Indian leader has retained power for a third term since Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first prime minister.

But if his BJP is forced to form a coalition, the party is likely to “be heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, making them critical players from whom we can expect to extract their pound of flesh, both in terms of policy-making, and government formation,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“It would really be uncharted territory, both for Indians and for the Prime Minister,” he said.

Before Modi came to power, India had coalition governments for 30 years. His BJP has always had a majority on its own while still ruling in coalition.

Temperatures reached 45 degrees during the voting

Extreme heat lashed India as voters went to the polls, with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees in some parts of the country. Temperatures were slightly cooler on Tuesday for the count, but election officials and political parties still brought large quantities of water and set up air coolers outdoors for people waiting for results.

BJP workers outside the party office in New Delhi performed a Hindu ritual shortly after the counting began. Meanwhile, supporters at the Congress party headquarters appeared upbeat and chanted slogans praising Rahul Gandhi, the party’s campaign face.

In more than 10 years in power, Modi’s popularity has overtaken that of his party and turned parliamentary elections into what has increasingly resembled a presidential-style campaign. The result is that the BJP increasingly relies on Modi’s enduring brand to stay in power, with local politicians taking a back seat even in state elections.

“Modi was not only the main campaigner but also the only campaigner in this election,” said Yamini Aiyar, a public policy scholar.

Critics say democracy is faltering

The country’s democracy, Modi’s critics say, is faltering under his government, which has increasingly used strong-arm tactics to subdue political opponents, clamp down on independent media and stifle dissent. The government rejected such accusations and said democracy was flourishing.

And economic discontent simmers under Modi. While stock markets hit record highs and millionaires multiplied, youth unemployment soared, with only a minority of Indians benefiting from the boom.

With elections opening in mid-April, the confident BJP initially focused its campaign on “Modi’s guarantees”, highlighting economic and welfare achievements that his party says have reduced poverty.

With him at the helm, “India will become a developed nation by 2047,” Modi repeats at rally after rally.

But the campaign has grown increasingly bitter as Modi has stepped up polarizing rhetoric aimed at Muslims, who make up 14 percent of the population, a tactic seen as energizing his core Hindu voters.

INDIA’s opposition alliance has attacked Modi for his Hindu nationalist politics and campaigned on unemployment, inflation and inequality.

But the broad alliance of more than a dozen political parties has been plagued by ideological differences and defections, raising questions about their effectiveness.

Meanwhile, the alliance also claims they have been unfairly attacked, citing multiple raids, arrests and corruption investigations against their leaders by federal agencies they say are politically motivated. The government denied this.

Women are a key constituency in India’s 2024 elections

Indian women are a key voting bloc, with more of them voting in recent elections than ever before. Most pollsters expect women voters to play a decisive role in determining election results in 2024.

Political parties woo them with monthly cash donations, subsidized cooking gas cylinders and low-interest loans. Many such programs have especially helped Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party expand its support among them, especially in rural areas.

The opposition alliance has also tried to win women’s votes by unveiling programs that promise financial aid of US$1,200 ($1,800) a year to poor women and promise to keep 50 percent of government jobs for women if voted into power.

Women constitute nearly 49 percent of India’s total electorate. Voter turnout has increased in all recent major elections—of women eligible to vote, 53 percent voted in 2004; 56 percent in 2009; 65.5 percent in 2014; and 67 percent in 2019. Figures for 2024 are not yet available, but are estimated to be similar to 2019 female voter turnout.