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Lithuanians will vote on Sunday in a presidential election amid growing fears about Moscow and security in the Baltic region.
Incumbent Gitanas Nauseda, a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its two-year war with Russia, is the clear favorite among seven candidates after a campaign focused on security issues in the Baltic states, according to polls showing him with a 29 percent share of the country’s 2.5 million voters.
The focus of his campaign was Russia’s war in Ukraine and its impact on national security, as well as the prospect of a potential act of aggression by Russia on the territory of Lithuania.
Prime Minister Ingrida Shimonite, 49, the only woman running, is Nauseda’s closest challenger with 14 percent support.
Just over half of Lithuanians think a Russian attack is possible or even very likely, Elta/Baltijos Tyrimai survey found; this is a common feeling in the Baltic countries.
Earlier this week, the country’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, raised the prospect of an ad hoc coalition of Western nations sending personnel for military training to Ukraine backed by ground-based air defenses, supporting the ideas championed by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Most of the candidates running in Sunday’s election, including Shimons and Nauseda, told the national broadcaster that they had kept food stocks ready in case of a military conflict. “I’m doing everything I can to make sure it won’t be necessary,” Nauseda said during a televised debate.
Both Nausėda and Šimonytė support increasing defense spending to at least 3% of Lithuania’s GDP, higher than expected 2024 EU average of 2%and part of the roughly 30% of GDP that the Kremlin pours into Russia’s military economy.
The Baltic states feel extremely vulnerable to the threat from Russia with the first 4,800 German troops arriving last month as part of NATO’s plan to bolster security between now and 2027. European leaders believe that even if a peace deal is struck in Ukraine , Putin will regroup to launch new incursions in the next decade.
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The aim is to pay for the modernization of Lithuania’s army and infrastructure to support a brigade of German soldiers – and their families – who will be stationed in Lithuania and ready for combat from 2027.
Although they agree on Russia policy, the two front-runners in the election differ on issues such as same-sex civil partnerships, which Nauseda opposes, and have a history of bitter feuds and refusal to speak to each other.
The President of Lithuania has a semi-executive role which includes heading the armed forces and chairing the highest political body for defense and national security and representing the country in the EU and NATO summit meetings.
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