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Key events
Here are the group tables before we start tonight.
This news from the team: Just one change of Denmark after that game with England in Frankfurt – there was another team playing – Rasmus Christensen (who made an early mistake for Harry Kane’s goal) came off and Alexander Bach came into the starting XI.
Dragan Stojkovic was honest, made three changes. Filip Mladenovic, Dusan Vlahovic and Dusan Tadic are out, a trio of big names.
Tonight’s earlier results from Group D
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Poland 1-1 France
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Netherlands 2-3 Austria
Austria top the group, France are second – they’ve been slow – and the Dutch will be the third-placed team and could face the winner of that group.
There is now a strong possibility that England, if they win the group, will play the Netherlands in the Round of 16.
England could use a big win over Slovenia to avoid that.#NEDAUS #Euro2024
— Dale Johnson (@DaleJohnsonESPN) June 25, 2024
The teams
Denmark: Schmeichel, Andersen, Westergaard, Christensen, Bach, Hülmand, Hoiberg, Maele, Eriksen, Wind, Hoylund. subtitles: Kjaer, Jensen, Delaney, Skov Olsen, Dolberg, Jorgensen, Damsgaard, Norgaard, Hermansen, Christiansen, Poulsen, Ronow, Dreyer, Christensen, Bruun Larsen.
Serbia: Rajkovic, Veljkovic, Milenkovic, Pavlovic, Mijajlovic, Ilic, Gudel, Zivkovic, Samardzic, Lukic, Mitrovic. subtitles: Stoic, Maksimovic, Vlahovic, Jovic, Tadic, Petrovic, Babic, Ratkov, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Gacinovic, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, Spaic, Mladenovic, Birmancevic.
Referee: Francois Letexier (France)
My former colleague and still friend (?) Dale Johnson is the permutation guru and on ESPN’s website, these are the scenarios for tonight’s teams. Don’t forget that England also play Slovenia.
DENMARK:
They would qualify on a draw as they would be guaranteed to be one of the best third teams at worst.
I’m winning
If Denmark and England win, Denmark finishes second.If Denmark win and England draw, first place is determined by goal difference, and the Danes will take first place if they win by 2+ goals. If Denmark win by one goal it will go down to goals scored and if it ends in a draw (eg Denmark 1-0, England 0-0) it goes to Fairplay (England -1, Denmark -4). If this finishes level, it is a European qualifying ranking (England 5th, Denmark 9th).
If Denmark and Slovenia win, they take the top two spots, with top spot determined by goal difference, which is now identical at 2-2. The team with the biggest win or the biggest win by the same margin (eg 2-1 and 1-0) will finish in first place. If they both win by the same score, it comes down to Fairplay (Denmark -4, Slovenia -4). If that stays the same, that’s the European standings (Denmark 9th, Slovenia 15th).
I’m drawing
If Denmark draws and England wins, Denmark finishes second.If Denmark and Slovenia draw, second place will be determined by goals scored, so the team involved in the tie with the higher score goes through. Therefore, Denmark 2-2 and Slovenia 1-1 finish in second place. If both tie on the same score, the runner-up is decided on fair play points (Denmark -4, Slovenia -4). If it is a level, it is the European qualification ranking (Denmark 9th, Slovenia 15th).
If Denmark draws and Slovenia wins, Denmark finishes third and qualifies.
Loss
Although two points are still mathematically possible as a best third place, it will not be enough.SERBIA:
I’m winning
Will certainly qualify with a win over Denmark and finish second if England win/draw.If Serbia win and England lose, Serbia will finish third against each other and qualify.
I’m drawing
Although two points are still mathematically possible as a best third place, it will not be enough.Loss
Unable to rank.
Early team news
Denmark welcome back Thomas Delaney, who has recovered from illness, and veteran captain Simon Kjaer could also return for Denmark, but Serbia will be without Juventus winger Filip Kostic after picking up a knee injury against England. Dragan Stojkovic said “there will be changes” to Serbia’s starting XI after the 1-1 draw with Slovenia.
Preamble
What do you mean you clicked on this by mistake? Consider this a debate-free zone in Trent, a safe place away from the panic that surrounds every England game. Do you want to talk to Conor Gallagher? Click the link above. Kieran Trippier the scapegoat? Rob Smith is your man there. Which leaves us to debate the merits of a game where the permutations are pretty wild, and to bank on whatever happens in Cologne.
Victory will see England progress as group winners. Denmark and Slovenia will advance automatically with wins. Serbia will finish in the top two if they beat Denmark and Slovenia fail to beat England. It is so easy. Until things are looked at for third place.
Do you understand? There will be reminders. Join me for kick off at 8pm UK time.
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